Interactive: Decarbonising transport, Australia’s fastest growing source of emissions

Transport is Australia’s third-largest source of emissions.

It’s also the fastest growing – it’s set to become the nation’s largest source of emissions by 2030.

There is an opportunity to improve Australia’s transport choice and make travel more efficient, while also reducing emissions in line with keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

Climateworks Centre’s new report, Decarbonising Australia’s transport sector: Diverse solutions for a credible emissions reduction plan, compares scenarios using two different ‘levers’ to decarbonise Australia’s transport sector:

Introducing diverse solutions to reduce emissions

The first lever analysed in the report is the mix of decarbonisation solutions deployed in each scenario.

We compare ‘Technology only‘ scenarios, focused primarily on zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) uptake, with ‘Diverse solutions’ scenarios, including solutions which:

• avoid the need for some travel and make car and truck trips shorter and more efficient 
• shift some travel to lower-emissions modes of transport (sometimes called a ‘mode shift’) such as travelling by train instead of plane, using more active and public transport, and moving more freight by rail 
• improve vehicle efficiency and switch to lower-carbon fuels – including getting more ZEVs on the road.

The ‘Diverse solutions’ scenarios include avoid and shift as well as improve solutions, ‘Technology only‘ scenarios, while the ‘Technology only‘ scenarios only include solutions in the improve category.

Faster uptake of zero-emissions vehicles still essential

The second lever we look at is ZEV uptake.

Climateworks’ most recent economy-wide 1.5°C scenario for Australia, released in 2023, sees a more than 90 per cent reduction in transport emissions by 2046. 

To meet this level of emissions reductions using a technology-only approach, Australia’s transport sector would see ‘rapid’ ZEV uptake – 72 per cent of all new vehicle sales (light vehicles and trucks) by 2030. 

In our new report, we also explored the emissions impact of a slower pace, modelling a ‘moderated’ ZEV uptake of 56 per cent by 2030. 

This ‘moderated ZEV uptake’ still exceeds current federal sales projections and state and territory targets for light vehicles.

What were the results?

Let’s take a look. 

Diverse solutions provide benefits beyond emissions reduction

By reducing the transport sectors’ future demand for electricity, ‘Diverse solutions’ ease pressure on the electricity system.

This contributes to a steady energy transition and enhances the resilience of Australia’s overall decarbonisation efforts. 

‘Diverse solutions’ can also ease congestion and pressure on existing roads and provide more ways for Australians to get around.

Developing a credible transport decarbonisation plan for Australia

Climateworks modelling shows that it is possible for the transport sector to contribute to a 1.5°C pathway for Australia by 2050. 

We consider a credible approach to transport decarbonisation to be one that uses all available solutions, supports the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5ºC, and achieves better outcomes for the transport system as a whole.

By pursuing solutions beyond ZEV technology, Australia gives its transport sector more tools to keep emissions reduction on track for 1.5ºC.

Our recommendations (which we go into in more detail in the report) are for Australia to:

1. Implement a portfolio of solutions so there is no single point of failure
2. Take every opportunity to increase ZEV uptake from current levels
3. Consider additional benefits beyond emissions reduction when assessing different approaches to decarbonise transport.

Developing a national plan to decarbonise transport provides the perfect opportunity to take an integrated approach – one that includes the full suite of solutions available. 

Our Decarbonising Australia’s transport sector: Diverse solutions for a credible emissions reduction plan report imagines a future transport system that incorporates all tools at its disposal and measures the benefits of including mode shift and reduced transport activity into its decarbonisation approach. 

Access the report