Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actress (Drama) — Allison Janney Goes for a Record; Breakouts Could Rise From ‘The Pitt,’ ‘Last of Us’ and ‘White Lotus’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series Commentary (Updated April 3, 2025): There are too many contenders, and so little space for them. That’s the theme of this year’s race for supporting drama actress.

Allison Janney, already a seven-time Emmy winner, could be poised to make history with an eighth trophy for her riveting performance in the second season of Netflix’s political thriller “The Diplomat.” Playing a sharp-tongued, high-level government official with her trademark wit, Janney once again reminds voters why she’s long been a TV Academy favorite. With 15 nominations under her belt — including wins for “The West Wing,” “Mom” and “Masters of Sex” — a victory this year would tie her with Cloris Leachman and Julia Louis-Dreyfus as the most-awarded female performer in Emmy history.

HBO/Max’s “The White Lotus,” a frequent Emmy powerhouse, returns with another stacked supporting cast. Carrie Coon delivers a masterclass in simmering tension, while Parker Posey brings viral, meme-tastic energy with her deliciously unhinged performance. Co-stars Leslie Bibb, Aimee Lou Wood, Michelle Monaghan and returning cast member Natasha Rothwell all add fresh texture to the ensemble, and any one of them could easily land a nom if voters go all-in on the series again.

Meanwhile, Kaitlyn Dever and Isabela Merced are both rumored to shine in emotionally charged arcs in the upcoming season of “The Last of Us.” Dever, an Emmy nominee for her role as Betsy Mallum in Hulu’s “Dopesick,” is already a known quantity on the awards circuit. While not entirely on voters’ radars yet, Merced has been quietly building an impressive résumé with roles in 2024’s blockbuster sci-fi horror flick “Alien: Romulus” and the romantic drama “Turtles All the Way Down.” The Latina actress is poised for a breakout year in 2025. Along with “The Last of Us,” she’s set to play Kendra Saunders, a.k.a. Hawkgirl, in James Gunn’s superhero summer film “Superman.”

Patricia Arquette, an Emmy winner for miniseries “The Act” and the classic drama “Medium,” continues to intrigue with her haunting portrayal of a rogue former Lumon manager in Apple’s “Severance,” a performance that could keep her in the mix.

HBO/Max’s buzzy new procedural “The Pitt” introduces a wave of breakout actors, led by Fiona Dourif (best known for her role of Nica Pierce in the recent “Chucky” movies and TV shows) and Katherine LaNasa (a terrific character actress with roles in the comedy “The Campaign” and the drama series “Truth Be Told”). Their roles have already drawn critical acclaim and could ignite awards chatter. Other supporting standouts Tracy Ifeachor, Shabana Azeez, Isa Briones and Supriya Ganaesh, could bring even more riches to the show’s growing momentum.

Julianne Nicholson adds further competition to the category with her performance in Hulu’s drama “Paradise,” following off her 2021 Emmy win for the miniseries “Mare of Easttown.” Christina Ricci keeps Paramount+ (with Showtime)’s “Yellowjackets” in the conversation, bringing her signature darkly comedic edge to the show’s third season.

And over at Disney+, Adria Arjona is said to be turning heads in the upcoming season of “Andor,” continuing the franchise’s pivot into more grounded, character-driven storytelling. Her nuanced performance could earn her a spot in the final lineup and bring some Star Wars representation to the drama field.

(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)